New Delhi, April 16, 2025 — India’s retail inflation cooled to 3.34% in March, marking the lowest level since September 2019, according to data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Tuesday. The decline was primarily driven by falling food prices, continuing the downward trend seen in February, when inflation stood at 3.61%.
This figure came in below market expectations, with a Reuters poll of economists predicting 3.60% for the month. The latest numbers remain well within the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) tolerance range of 2–6% and even dip below the ideal 4% target.
Food inflation, which constitutes nearly half the Consumer Price Index (CPI), eased to 2.69% in March from 3.75% in February. Vegetable prices contracted by 7.04%, while inflation for cereals came in at 5.93%. Prices for pulses declined by 2.73%.
Rural inflation cooled to 3.25%, while urban inflation dropped further to 2.48%.
Despite concerns over global headwinds, including recent US tariff hikes, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra expressed optimism during the latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. He noted that inflation is likely to ease further in FY26, offering some respite to consumers.
The RBI maintained its inflation forecast for FY26 at 4%, while keeping a close eye on global volatility and weather-related risks.
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